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Sports Bet Knowledge

by Hollie Davenport (2019-11-24)


If one of your value bet loses, it doesn't mean the bet isn't going to have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets may be winning bets. The decisive factor is to seek out value within your picks. Bear in mind, the greater the number of value bets, the larger the profit you may achieve.

Simply keeping a record of how each of the hundreds of tips we make actually perform against the eventual result isn't enough, what we need now is a way of analysing that data and grouping it logically to obtain the best from it. Results are not absolutely the exact same, quite simply a tip that shows one possible outcome for match A and the same possible outcome for match B will certainly not produce the same result (i.e. a correct prediction or possibly a wrong prediction). Why is this? Well there are actually hundreds of factors why and you will never be able to account for all of them, if you may you would no doubt be a millionaire. When trying to predict the outcome of a match you might look at such qualitative things as the present injury number of each team, the team sheet, morale of the players, etc. We also can look-at Quantitative factors using our statistical methods to predict the outcome of the match, so we may look-at specific things like past performance, position within the league, or more tried and tested statistical methods such as the Rateform method. We can use all of these details to predict the outcome of match A and also the outcome of match B and still not have the same result, included in the reason behind this is, as explained before, that we can not account for all the factors in a match, it's impossible. But there's something else, something we can account for which we have not yet thought about.

When we look-at one match in isolation we only look at the factors concerning each of the 2 teams in the match, but why not expand this to look at how the other teams they have played are also performing? 'Why would we want to do that?' I hear several of you say. Because results are not always the exact same. Let's say our prediction for match A and match B is a home win (forgetting about the predicted score for the moment). What else can we take note of to enhance the prediction of a home win? We can look-at the performance of all of the home win tips designed for the same competition that the match will be played in and then make a judgement based on that new information. This is great as it gives us an extra factoring level to remember that we did not have before.

Looking across all of the home win predictions in a single league will give us a portion success rate for home wins for that specific league, but we can improve on this even further. We can do this by doing the exact same exercise across numerous leagues and obtaining a percentage success rate for each league. This implies we can now look for the league which produces the most effective overall home win prediction success rate and look for home win predictions for the coming fixtures. By default we realize that that league might be more very likely to produce a successful outcome for a home prediction than some other. Of-course we can employ this technique for away win and football gambling draw predictions also.

How Tight Will be the League?:

Why does this distinction between the leagues occur? As with trying to predict the outcome of a single match there are lots of factors which make up this phenomenon, but there are actually just several major factors that influence why one league should produce more home wins through a season than another. The most obvious of these could possibly be described as the 'tightness' of the league. What do I mean by 'tightness'? In almost any league there is usually a gap in the skills and abilities of those teams consistently at the very best of the league and those at the bottom, this is often expressed as a 'difference in class'. This difference in class varies markedly between different leagues with some leagues being a lot more competitive than others because of a closer amount of skills through the league, 'a tight league'. In the matter of a tight league the instances of drawn games will be more noticeable than with a 'not so tight league' and home wins will most likely be of a lower frequency.

So, let's say we are enthusiastic about predicting a home win, armed with our new details about the 'tightness' of leagues we could make predictions for matches within a season for as many leagues once we can manage, and watch how those predictions perform in each league. You will find that the success of the predictions will closely match the 'tightness' of a particular league, so where a particular league produces more home wins then we are going to have more success with our home predictions. Don't be misled, this does not mean that simply because you can find more home wins we have been bound to be more accurate, what I am taking about is a success rate in percentage terms of the range of home predictions made which has nothing directly to do with how many actual home wins you will discover. One example is let's say we make one hundred home predictions in league A and 100 in league B, and let's claim that seventy five percent are correct in league A but only sixty percent in league B. We have made the same number of predictions in each league with differing results, and those difference are almost certainly as a result of the 'tightness' of each league. League B will be a 'tight' league with more teams having similar levels of 'class', whereas league A has a wider margin of class in regards to the teams within it. Therefore we should pick out the best performing league concerning home wins and make our home win selections from that league.

We Have To Be Consistent:

Of course there might be more to it than that. It's no good just taking each tip and recording how it performed we have to apply the exact same rules to every single tip made. You will need to make sure that the parameters you set for each predictive method you use (e.g. Rateform, Score Prediction, etc.) remain constant. So choose your very best settings for each method and stick to them for each and every prediction, for every league, and then for the whole season. You need to do this so that you can retain consistency of predictions within leagues, between leagues, and over time. There is nothing stopping you using many different sets of parameters as long as you keep the information produced from each separate.



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